If you think the drama over Karnataka floor test is over, then I suggest you to take a deep breath and wait. Politics is the art of deception and managing your resources to utilize it in right time and right way. Resignation of B S Yeddyurappa is only the interval – full cycle is still due. So what exactly went wrong for BJP to garner magic number? There could be few possible scenarios-
First, utter failure for breaking the rank in Congress and JD(S) camp. This could be the very reasonable conclusion to draw. The credit goes to Congress and their strategists to keep the camp safe for any potential poaching and keep their herds together. In spite of being in power in centre and state (Karnataka) BJP failed miserably to break the opposition rank. It’s ethical or legal- that’s an another area of debate. But BJP’s failure to break the rank is out of question. That raises the question over the capability of BJP leadership and give plenty of ammunition to JD(S)-Congress camp. The myth of Shah’s invincibility of stitching various parties together as they did in Goa, Manipur and Meghalaya proved wrong. This alone will boost the confident among stakeholders of federal front.
Even though it seems like Congress is on the winning side of Yeddyurappa’s resignation saga, they will definitely will be the casualties of federal front revival. One more thing from BJP’s point of view, master craftsman Hemant Biswa Sarma type leader who is the main architect of Congress’s rout from North East is much needed to realize their “Congress Mukht” Bharat into a reality. Obviously B S Yeddyurappa is an able leader and great spoiler (as he did in 2013 by forming his own political outfit) but not enough match for JD(S)-Congress combination.
Second, BJP is not serious enough to form the Govt. in Karnataka specially the central leadership including Modi-Shah duo when the result came out. This is highly unlikely but worthy of considering this as an possibility for this fiasco. Body language of Yeddyurappa before the trust vote speech was really interesting one. He looks very upset but accepted his fate even after trying hard to get the magic number. It is very unusual BJP for being power in centre and state (Karnataka) could not make it happen regardless how hard Congress and JD(S) camp kept their herds intact. As a tallest Lingayat leader Yeddyurappa could have easily poached 8-10 Lingayat MLA from Congress-JD(S) camp. Only feasible explanation for thus fiasco could be Yeddyurappa might not have given free hand for horse trading just to keep intact the clean image of Modi and BJP for bigger battle in 2019.
Third, a well calculated and very shrewd move by Shah-Modi-Yeddyurappa camp. This move bears the foot print of Modi. Whenever any big political move is imminent, Modi choose to spend that due date somewhere remote like Jammu and Kashmir or may be some where in North-East or overseas completely. This may be a coincident but this type of familiar cycle occur again and again. Anyway, regardless whose idea this might be- it deserves a greater attention as it yields better political outcome than previous two scenarios. This move will allow indirectly governing Karnataka via Presidents rule which help to preserve clean image as well as barring Congress from power and resources for Lok Sabha election in 2019.
So how is the president rule come in the picture here? As result of Yeddyurappa’s resignation whole JD(S)-Congress camp looks victorious. All the top guns from both camps will be busy power sharing arrangement, this is the moment BJP will play trump card to break the vulnerable MLAs, whom all were earlier nearly impossible to break. Obviously BJP will ask for trust vote in Karnataka Bidhan Soudha. Whole BJP machinery will work meticulously with all available resources to defeat JD(S)-Congress combine. As a result of defeat, BJP will probably ask for president rule. In this point, clear winner is BJP as it will depict JD(S)-Congress defeat as their internal quarrel for power and power sharing arrangement, as well as BJP will be able to preserve complete clean image for interim state election which inevitable due to president rule or upcoming 2019 Lok Shabha election.
Whatever the case is, BJP certainly has plenty of reasons to smile. Yeddyurappa’s Vajpayee move (as he did in 1996) is certainly a master stroke of Modi-Shah duo which will ensure not only grip over Karnataka but also barred Congress from breathing space for upcoming Lok Shaba election in 2019. This move might give JD(S) much needed confidence for federal front which will be direct conflict with so called third front or Congress lead UPA.
Well, nothing is concrete yet at this moment, perhaps we have to wait for another couple of weeks to watch the next episode.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of SatyaVijayi