“The losses in the bypolls contain a dire message for the BJP” was the sub-headline of one of the articles. Almost all the publications carried similar news and views. The message was that when BJP can lose bypoll elections in Phulpur and Gorakhpur Lok Sabha constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, due to BSP’s support to SP, it can also lose 2019 Loksabha elections across India if opposition parties can come together to fight election under one banner.
To be fair, more than secular politicians it was the secular media and secular intellectual which thought they have discovered a formula to defeat BJP. Without getting into the reasons of losses, here I will focus on the formula of coalition of opposition to defeat BJP.
If I can draw a simile from media, it will mean if Hindustan Times and Indian Express can merge and form another newspaper, readers of both the newspapers will automatically become the reader of newly found newspaper and it will have more reader then Times of India. The merger can happen in Mumbai and N Delhi, because Hindustan Times does not have editions in other cities. In Bangalore there is neither Indian Express nor Hindustan Times, so the coalition of newspaper will need Deccan Herald. So how will Deccan Herald benefit? It can have a new name of the newly found newspaper but its reader will remain same and Times of India will remain leader. Further in Coimbatore they might need to tie up with a newspaper which is in Indian language. So does it mean that the reader who was reading a Tamil paper will suddenly start reading the new English newspaper formed to defeat Times of India and will it defeat Times of India without addition of any new reader?
The situation of political parties is something similar. If SP and BSP combine how BJD will benefits in Orissa or if NCP and Congress combine in Maharashtra how does TRS benefit in Andhra Pradesh? And will in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, TRS and TDP come together?
Surprisingly all the proponents of 2019 coalition could not convince JD-S and Congress to come together to defeat BJP in Karnataka legislative elections. Ultimately, BJP was not defeated by any coalition but it lost to NOTA in Karnataka.
Coming back to UP, assuming SP and BSP form a coalition for 2019 loksabha elections, and split 80 seats from UP between them in equal proportion i.e. 40 each. Then what happens to 40 aspirants in each political party that have lost out on the ticket. Well, we are looking at, at least 80 rebel independent candidates.
Assuming Congress also joins the coalition, with 20 seats, that will produce 20 more rebel candidates from SP+BSP combine. (It will be more interesting to see if Congress will have 20 candidates to fight elections in UP).
Now add to this coalition, Ajit Singh led RLD and other smaller parties in UP and one can have safely 160 rebel candidate. So in the end, theoretically there will be 80 coalition candidates, 160 rebel independent candidates and 80 candidates of BJP and of course in addition of all this there will be candidates of Muslim League in its different form and other independent candidates. Who will win is not difficult to deduce.
Now something similar will happen in Bengal, if TMC, various factions of Communist party and Congress party will put one combined candidate!!!!!
Without getting into examples of other states, let’s move to another aspect.
Assuming for a moment the opposition coalition win, then India’s minister of cabinet might just look like:
|Sl No||Minister||Portfolio*||Remarks/ Achievement|
|1||Mr. Rahul Gandhi||Prime Minister||Will manufacture potato in a factory, and another factory will convert it into Gold.
Will connect all the MRI, CT Scan, X-ray, Sonography machine, weighing machine for better health care
Accused no 2 in National herald case
|2||Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav||Home Minister||‘Ladkon se galti ho jati hai’ on rape accused.|
|3||Mr. Akhilesh Yadav||Education Minister||“little bit of cheating” in exam is OK|
|4||Ms. Mayawati||Law Minister||Tilak, Taraju, Talwar; inko mare jute chaar|
(*It is just an assumption, each one can get different portfolio as per their choice)
Above is just an example based on UP, because the whole dream started and is based on UP by polls. Reader can visualise rest of the ministries, ministers and their achievements.
Since UP will have Yogi Adityanath as a chief minister, all the bigwigs will have to move to centre (Untill and unless UP government is dismissed the moment new government comes in power, which is a realistic possibility)
Besides forming coalition, opposition parties will go to any extent (taking help from Pakistan, China, Cambridge Analytica) to divide the citizens and win election based on divisive politics. They won’t hesitate to create a civil war if it helps them win election.
In between all this, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has said he is not in favour of joining hands with the Congress to form an opposition alliance. K. Chandrasekhar Rao, of TRS has been working on the idea of coalition at the national-level for the last one year for a non-Congress, non-BJP alternative at the national-level.
It is very clear that barring three or four political parties who are scared of their survival, no one else is interested in national alliance. Each regional party is not a political party but a business house. Business doesn’t run on coalitions, there are mergers & acquisitions, takeovers or collaborations.
There can’t be a national opposition coalition; even if there is one it will never win an election.
The dream that most in secular Indian media and secular intellectuals are watching will remain a dream. But it doesn’t mean BJP should not be working hard to win election. It has leadership to deliver; all it needs is to focus on causes of Hindus apart from development.
Sandeep Singh is a Political Analyst and tweets from @communalsandeep
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of SatyaVijayi